Fox News Power Rankings: 11 races shift left What key midterm races indicate about the balance of power in Congress; analysis from Colin Reed, senior vice president of Definers Public Affairs, and Dave Brown, Democratic strategist. **Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.** On the roster: A new home for House Power Rankings – I’ll Tell You What: Who wants to talk about Omarosa? – Arpaio sets sights on Ward, opening way for McSally – Ellison takes domestic abuse claims into general – Fine, Jessie, stay up there A NEW HOME FOR HOUSE POWER RANKINGS These things only tend to become clear in hindsight, but our guess is that if Republicans do indeed lose the House of Representatives in November’s midterm elections we will look back on last week as a pivotal moment. Three-term Rep. Chris Collins, a Republican who represents suburban Buffalo, turned himself in to authorities for arrest on corruption charges. In an already unhappy election cycle for Republicans, a prominent House member closely aligned with the Republican president facing charges of self-dealing and insider trading is about as bad as it gets. We were reminded of the incident the last time Republicans faced a climate like this in 2006 when a top GOP House member got caught making sexual advances on teenaged House pages. Mark Foley’s timing was even worse than Collins’. The Florida congressman’s lascivious messages came to light at the end of September, too late for Republicans to try to get past. It was a death knell. The question for Republicans this year is whether the time they have left will make a difference. A fresh round of polling has confirmed what most race watchers have believed for some time. A survey from Quinnipiac University gives Democrats a 9-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot, a result in keeping with other recent polls from top-tier polling organizations. As you think about these generic ballot polls always remember that it’s not enough for Democrats to simply be ahead. First, there’s the traditional issue of voter frequency. Republicans have tended to slightly outperform in polls like these while Democrats have tended to miss the mark slightly on the basis of turnout alone. Then there are some structural deficits that Democrats face. Some of this is gerrymandering, but most of it relates to the geographical distribution of the two parties. Given that most rural voters are Republicans, the Red Team has a built-in advantage that five of the eight states with populations so small that they get only one at-large member of the House are represented by Republicans. If Democrats used to boast a “blue wall” for presidential campaigns, changing political demographics have built a pretty impressive red wall for the GOP in the House. That means Democrats need a big swing this year to overcome the existing Republican majority. Is that 6 points or 8 points? We’ll tell you after the election, but for now we just bear in mind that the Blue
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