WASHINGTON — Before she agreed to run for the Senate in Arizona this year, Representative Martha McSally reached an agreement with White House officials: President Trump would remain on the sidelines and not endorse one of her more conservative competitors. But a few weeks ago, Ms. McSally and other establishment Republicans were worried enough about her prospects that they returned to the White House with a new appeal, according to multiple party officials familiar with the conversations: Could Mr. Trump drop his neutrality and endorse her candidacy after all? Ms. McSally’s shifting requests illustrate Mr. Trump’s ability to play kingmaker and effectively decide competitive primaries. But, more consequentially, they demonstrate the willingness of mainstream Republicans like Ms. McSally, who will not say whether she even voted for Mr. Trump in 2016, to link themselves to the president if they want to win. The Republican nominating season will largely conclude on Tuesday with the Arizona Senate race and the Florida governor’s contest, leaving a paradox looming over Washington: Even as legal questions swirl around the presidency, Mr. Trump’s grip on G.O.P. primary voters is as strong as it has been since he seized the party’s nomination a little over two years ago. Mr. Trump’s outsized influence offers him a measure of political insurance. And some of his leading allies are already warning Republican officeholders who may be faced with an impeachment vote in a Democratic-controlled Congress to be fully mindful of the president’s popularity with their shared base. “He’ll attack you, your money will dry up and you will lose your primary,” Corey Lewandowski, Mr. Trump’s former campaign manager, said about the consequences Republican lawmakers would face if they turned on the president. “Go ask Mark Sanford what fighting with the president will get you.” Mr. Sanford, a South Carolina congressman, lost a primary to the Trump-endorsed Katie Arrington in June. Mr. Lewandowski also invoked Senators Jeff Flake of Arizona and Bob Corker of Tennessee, two Trump critics who retired rather than seek re-election this year. And he brought up Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska, another frequent detractor of the president, to pointedly note that Mr. Trump’s high command is well aware Mr. Sasse’s term is up in 2020. Mr. Trump’s endorsements have included many candidates who did not face serious primary challenges. But they have also proved decisive in some races, or at least ensured vi
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