Voters in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Connecticut and Vermont cast ballots in primaries Tuesday, as predictions of a “big blue wave” driven by anti-Trump sentiment are dissipating. Most available data of any real relevance thus far suggests the blue wave isn’t forming. All that could still change. There’s a long way to go before the ballots that count the most are cast, and all indications are the November elections will be tight. The biggest surprise in the voting Tuesday came in Minnesota, with the defeat of former two-term GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Pawlenty dropped his support for President Trump in the 2016 presidential race after a tape surfaced of Trump boasting about grabbing women. GOP primary voters instead selected Trump supporter Jeff Johnson as their nominee for governor, showing the president remains popular among Republicans. Nationally, President Trump’s approval rating has again hit 50 percent in the Rasmussen Poll (while sinking to 39 percent in Gallup’s) and the Democrats’ lead on the generic ballot test has closed to a hair under 4 percent. Balanced against that is the behavior of the voters. Turnout in most places is up for Democrats over what it was in the 2014 midterms and down for the GOP. In Wisconsin, where both parties had competitive, top-of-the-ticket statewide primaries Tuesday, nearly 75,000 more Democrats showed up to vote than Republicans. In Minnesota the gap was almost 250,000. The difference in enthusiasm may be enough to boost the Democrats in their bid to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives by a narrow margin. But it probably isn’t enough to make Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., leader of the Senate majority. And it probably won’t change in any appreciable way the GOP’s hold on governorships and state legislative chambers.
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