**Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.** On the roster: The GOP’s Pollyanna problem – Time Out: As president, he took a hard line against pork – Dems look to make gerrymandering a midterm issue – A national treasure? THE GOP’S POLLYANNA PROBLEMAs Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman recently pointed out, more than one out of every six Republican-controlled House districts doesn’t have an incumbent running this year. Having 43 incumbents not running is not just high, it’s historic – a record for at least the past century. We mention this just now because it is only belatedly dawning on some Republicans how dire the party’s chances in 2018 are looking – and how Americans living in climate-controlled information bubbles is changing our politics. It should be no surprise that Republicans are in for a tough year. The party has trailed in national polls all along, sometimes by huge margins. No modern president other than George W. Bush in the wake of 9/11 has seen his party gain seats in a first midterm. The current Republican president is broadly unpopular. Democratic voters have shown in polls and in special elections far greater voter intensity than the GOP. All of the necessary elements are there. But still there are voices from President Trump on down in the GOP who are dismissive of the idea that Democrats are poised to do well. The president sometimes even talks about a “red wave,” something contrary to every available data point. Even if you don’t believe that polls are useful, even if you discount historical precedent, even if you consider special election results to be irrelevant, there’s still no evidence that Republicans are heading for a happy November. Maybe it will be worse than expected, maybe it will be better, but it’s still not good. All those vacancies alone should be evidence that the folks closest to the voters understand what’s brewing up out there. We’ve talked here before how it’s important for parties to keep their members optimistic even when the dark clouds are on the horizon. The way waves become tsunamis is when the party in power basically gives up. When dispiritedness takes hold it intensifies the damage as peripheral supporters tune out. But there’s another danger in a tough year: Playing Pollyanna. If Republicans aren’t aware of just how tough this fall will be, a few things are likely to happen that could make things much worse for the Red Team. First, consider the prospects of a potential government shutdown next month. A party that was being honest with itself about a tough year wouldn’t likely even play with such a possibility. But if you’re waiting for the “red wave,” maybe a politically damaging gambit like that one seems plausible. Second, donors, volunteers and committees have a harder time making strategic decisions. If you’re a Republican seriously thinking about the possibility of House gains this fall, how could you start the painful work of triage? Resources are finite and failing to see the world
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