“I think there’s going to be real headline risk. I don’t think Trump pulls a North Korea and tries to extend Rouhani any sort of olive branch,” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital. “It could push oil prices up because Trump’s going to be a pointed reminder of the market that Trump administration policy is maximum pressure.” The U.S. pulled out of the Iran nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA], between Iran and six countries that removed economic sanctions in return for Iran’s promise to end its nuclear program. However, the Trump administration opposed the agreement as one-sided and said it allowed for Iran to eventually resume its nuclear program. The other parties in the agreement remain in it, along with Iran, but the U.S. has already set plans to sanction Iran’s oil business as of early November. Analysts say about 650,000 barrels of Iranian oil has already been taken off the market. Even if European countries remain in the nuclear agreement, many companies will no longer deal with Iranian crude for fear of being kept from business dealings with the U.S. Estimates of 1 million barrels or more of Iranian crude could be off the market by year end. “There is an increasing consensus view that supplies are going to get real tight toward the end of the year. It’s almost silly season. People are talking about $1
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